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Analysis and forecast report on power supply and demand situation in the first quarter of 2020

 

In the first quarter, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 caused an unprecedented impact on economic and social development. The power industry fully implemented the government's decision-making and deployment, actively promoted the prevention and the resumption, provided strong power guarantees, ensured sufficient and reliable power supply, and actively implemented phased price reduction, and reduced the power costs of users.

 

I: National power supply and demand in the first quarter of 2020

 

(1)    The power consumption of the whole society decreased year on year, and the decline was significantly narrowed in March

 

In the first quarter, the power consumption of the whole society was 1570 TWh, down 6.5% year on year. With the control of the COVID-19, the impact on power consumption has been significantly weakened. In March, the power consumption of the whole society decreased by 4.2% year on year, 5.9% lower than that in February.

 

First, the electricity consumption of the primary industry increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of animal husbandry and fishery increased rapidly.

 


Second, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry dropped by 8.8% year-on-year, and the decline in March narrowed significantly. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the second industry was 997.1 TWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. Industrial electricity consumption was 979.4 TWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. The electricity consumption of manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1% year-on-year.

 

Third, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the information transmission / software and information technology service industry maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 262.8 TWh, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%. Among them, electricity consumption in transportation / warehousing and postal services fell by 5.2%, real estate fell by 12.2%, leasing and business services fell by 14.4%, wholesale and retail fell by 15.5%, and lodging and catering fell by 22.8%. Information transmission / software and information technology service industry power consumption growth rate reached 27.0%, of which Internet data service industry growth rate reached 92.3%, software and information technology service industry growth rate reached 71.5%. Electricity consumption in the battery charging and swapping service industry increased by 36.5%.

 

Fourth, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 3.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of rural residents' electricity consumption was significantly higher than that of urban residents. In the first quarter, the urban and rural residents 'electricity consumption was 293.2 billion kWh, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year. The warm winter weather restricted the residents' heating load and electricity growth to a certain extent.

 

Fifth, electricity consumption in the western region has increased slightly, while electricity consumption in the eastern and central regions has dropped by about 10%.

 

(2) The power supply continues to show the trend of green and low-carbon development, and the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation keeps rapid growth

 

As of the end of March, the installed power generation capacity nationwide was 2020GW, an increase of 5.7% year-on-year, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 850GW, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 42.1% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. In the first quarter, the power generation was 1580 TWh, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%; the average utilization hours of power generation equipment was 815 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 104 hours; the total investment of major power enterprises was 96.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3% year-on-year.

 

First, the newly installed power generation capacity decreased year-on-year, and wind power investment increased rapidly. As of the end of March, the hydropower installed capacity was 360GW, thermal power was 1200 GW, nuclear power was 48.77 GW, grid-connected wind power was 210 GW and grid-connected solar power was 210 GW. In the first quarter, the newly installed power generation capacity was 13.56 GW, a year-on-year decrease of4.33 GW; of which, the newly installed non-fossil energy power generation capacity was 7.09 GW, accounting for 52.3% of the total newly installed capacity. Wind power investment by major power enterprises was 28.1 billion yuan, up 185.9% year-on-year.

 

Second, the hydropower and thermal power generation has decreased significantly, while wind and solar power generation has maintained rapid growth. In the first quarter, the hydropower and thermal power generation was 196.3TWh and 1174.6TWh respectively, down 9.5% and 8.2% year-on-year respectively; the nuclear power generation was 78TWh, up 1.2% year-on-year; Grid-connected wind power and grid-connected solar power generation was 114.9TWh and 52.8TWh respectively, up 10.4% and 20.3% year-on-year respectively.

 

Third, the utilization hours of solar power generation equipment increased slightly, while the utilization hours of other power generation equipment decreased year-on-year.

 

Fourth, the capacity of newly added AC transformer equipment and the length of transmission lines decreased year-on-year, and trans-region power supply continued to increase. In the first quarter, the newly added 220 kV and above transformer equipment capacity was 44.15GVA, a year-on-year decrease of 17.57 GVA; The length of newly added transmission lines of 220 kV and above was 3855 km, a year-on-year decrease of 1890 km. The total trans-provincial electricity output was 284.5TWh, down 5.2 percent year on year, mainly due to the decline in hydropower generation in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces. The trans-regional electricity supply was 112.3TWh, up 6.8 percent year on year.

 

Fifth, the fuel supply of power production saw slight shortage at the beginning and back to balance later, and the supply is generally guaranteed. In the first quarter, affected by factors such as delayed coal mine resumption in some areas and obstructed coal transportation, the supply of coal for power production has experienced a process of slight shortage in some areas to the overall balance nationwide. At the end of March, the national coal inventory for power production was generally sufficient.

 

(3) The national power supply and demand was balanced in general with certain surplus

 

In the first quarter, the power supply and demand in North China, East China, central China and South China were in overall balance, and the power supply in Northeast and Northwest China was surplus.

 

II: Forecast of power supply and demand situation in China

 

(1)    The growth rate of electricity consumption will pick up gradually

 

The COVID-19 are still spreading all over the world, the downturn risks of the global economy are increasing, and the import and export are still facing challenges. All the above brings uncertainties to China's electricity consumption. On the positive side, with the resumption of work in most sectors, the rebound of the national economy will fuel the power consumption gradually. Generally speaking, the growth rate of electricity consumption will gradually pick up. It is estimated that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in the second quarter will pick up about 9 percentage points compared with that in the first quarter; in the first half of the year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will pick up from - 6.5% in the first quarter to - 1.5% to - 2.5%; it is preliminarily estimated that the annual growth of electricity consumption in the whole society will be 2% - 3% higher than that in the previous year.

 

(2) The proportion of non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity will continue to increase

 

It is estimated that in the first half of the year, the newly added installed capacity will be about 42 GW. It is estimated that in the whole year, the newly added installed capacity will be 120 GW, of which the installed capacity of non-fossil energy will be 89 GW. It is estimated that by the end of the year, the installed capacity of power generation in China will be 2130 GW, an increase of about 6% year on year; the total installed capacity of non-fossil will reach about 930 GW, accounting for 43.6% of the total installed capacity, an increase of about 1.7 percentage points over the end of 2019.

 

(3) The power supply and demand will maintain an overall balance

 


It is expected that the national power supply and demand will maintain an overall balance and power supply in certain areas will see slight shortage during peak hours. From the perspective of regions, it is expected that the power supply and demand in North and central China will experience shortage during the peak period; the  power supply and demand in East and South China will be balanced in general; and the power supply capacity in Northeast and Northwest China will be surplus.

 

Suggestions

 

(1) Suggestions on ensuring the safe operation of the power system

 

First, to speed up the establishment and improvement of compensation mechanisms for auxiliary services such as peak and frequency regulation and the Two-Part tariffs mechanism, thus to continuously improve the peak-shaving capacity of the power system. Second, maintain the stability of the coal import policy and make full use of the domestic and international markets to stabilize the coal supply for power production . Third, continue to implement the new energy investment monitoring and early warning system to improve the utilization rate of new energy. Fourth, improve the safe and stable operation ability of power grid.

 

(2)    Suggestions on the protection of power infrastructure supply chain

 

First, the relevant government authorities should help enterprises to find alternatives for key equipment manufacturing countries and manufacturers, and coordinate upstream and downstream enterprises of the industrial chain to guarantee the supply . Second, local governments and enterprises should accelerate the implementation of national favorable policies and promote the construction and development of smart energy and electricity infrastructure. Third, power enterprises should strengthen the research and development on domestic equipment technology, further master the key technologies and key links of the power industry chain, and continuously improve the localization rate of key equipment.

 

(3)    Suggestions on relieving operation pressure of electric power enterprises

 

At present, many provincial power grid enterprises are enduring losses. First, the enterprises should raise funds through multiple channels to reduce the loss. Second, the government should include the power enterprises into the scope of financing support during the COVID-19. Third, the government should support  power enterprises to develop supply chain financial services and speed up capital turnover of new energy enterprises. Forth, the time limit for the commissioning of wind power, competitive photovoltaic and biomass power production should be appropriately relaxed.



 

 
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