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Power consumption data shows that China's economy has withstood the impact of the epidemic

 

On the morning of March 16, the National Bureau of Statistics held a press conference on the performance of the national economy in January to February 2020. Most economic indicators showed a sharp year-on-year decline, reflecting that the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 had brought a big impact on the economy.

 

Statistics from the State Grid Corporation of China show that the total electricity consumption of the entire  SGCC business area in the first two months fell by 8.8% year-on-year. It is the slowest growth rate in the first two months since 2003 and is lower than -5.2% in the first two months in 2009. It reflects that the short-term impact of the COVID-19 on China's economy has exceeded the SARS in 2003 and the international financial crisis in 2008.

 

From January to February, electricity consumption in the primary industry increased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. Electricity consumption in the secondary industry decreased by 13.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 14.1 percentage points year-on-year. In February, the average daily electricity consumption in the secondary industry was only about 60% of the normal level. Electricity consumption in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 13.4 percentage points year-on-year. Residential electricity consumption grew slightly by 1.2%, and the growth rate decreased by 11.0 percentage points from the same period last year.

 

From January to February, the electricity consumption of industry decreased by 13.7% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption for manufacturing industry decreased by 11.3% year-on-year; during the same period, the added value of industries above designated size fell by 13.5% year-on-year, and the added value of manufacturing industry decreased by 15.7% year-on-year.


 

From January to February, the power consumption of information transmission\software and information technology services increased by 27.3% year-on-year, reflecting the vigorous development of online shopping, online office, online education, etc.; the power consumption of health and social work increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the power consumption of lodging industry and catering services, education\culture\sports and entertainment industry, wholesale and retail industry decreased by 11.4%, 7.9% and 7.0% year-on-year respectively.

 

According to the latest data, the daily electricity production and sales in the SGCC business area on March 17 has recovered to about 83% of the pre-holiday level, close to the absolute scale in the same period last year. Considering that the current temperature is higher than that in recent years, it is estimated that the power consumption of the whole society in the  SGCC business area will decrease by about 5% in March compared with the same period of last year, and by about 7% in the first quarter compared with the same period of last year. Considering the important achievements of the prevention and control of COVID-19 in China and the fact that the fundamentals of China's long-term economic growth have not changed, the short-term impact caused by COVID-19 will be gradually eliminated, and the economic performance in the second half of 2020 will probably be stable and good. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society will pick up significantly in the second quarter and the second half of 2020 and maintain steady growth throughout the year.

 
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